MNQ Futures · Initial Balance Research

The first two bars tell you
where price wants to go

A 5-year study of 1,302 sessions examining how the bullish or bearish character of each 30-minute IB bar predicts directional breaches by noon and close.
Qualifying days
1,302
IB window
09:30 – 10:30 ET
Breach
≥ 1 tick (0.25 pts)
Baseline — all qualifying days, no filter applied
Both bars aligned — continuation
Bars reverse — second bar flips direction
Doji combos (n ≤ 1 — not statistically meaningful)
Bullish + Doji: 1 day · Bearish + Doji: 0 days · Doji + Bullish: 0 days · Doji + Bearish: 1 day · Doji + Doji: 0 days
IB high breach rate
IB low breach rate
Baseline rate (thin vertical line on bar)
pp = percentage points difference vs the baseline above (all 1,302 qualifying days, unfiltered)
Bar 1: 09:30–10:00 ET · Bar 2: 10:00–10:30 ET · Bullish: close > open · Bearish: close < open · Doji: close = open
Qualifying day: first post-IB bar opens inside IB range · Breach: any bar wick trades beyond IB level by ≥ 1 tick